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Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 202037
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Polo is a sheared cyclone, and the cloud pattern consists of a tight
swirl of low clouds with intermittent deep convection. The initial
intensity is kept at 40 kt at this time, but given the hostile
environment and the cooler waters, weakening is forecast. Polo will
likely become a remnant low in about 36 hours.

Polo has been moving between northwest and west-northwest since
yesterday at about 5 to 7 kt. The cyclone is trapped south of an
amplifying mid-level ridge over Mexico, and this pattern should
force Polo to move on a west-northwest to west track for the next 2
to 3 days, and then the remnant low should meander until
dissipation. The NHC forecast has not changed, and continues to be
very close to the multi-model consensus.

Based on the forecast track and wind radii, tropical storm force
winds are anticipated to remain south of the Baja California
peninsula. Since any unexpected deviation to the north of the
forecast track could bring tropical storm force winds to the coast,
the Government of Mexico is keeping the tropical storm watch until
Polo begins to move away from Baja California Sur.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/2100Z 21.2N 109.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 21.5N 110.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 22.0N 111.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 22.3N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/1800Z 22.0N 114.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/1800Z 21.5N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/1800Z 20.5N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila



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Page last modified: Saturday, 20-Sep-2014 20:37:17 UTC