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Hurricane FRANK Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 262033
TCDEP2

HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016

Frank has intensified a little more during the day, with a ragged
eye occasionally showing itself within the central dense overcast.
Dvorak estimates range from 65 to 75 kt, so the initial wind speed
is increased to 70 kt on the advisory.  Frank should be near its
peak intensity since it is already moving over sub-26C waters with
vertical shear likely to increase overnight.  Steady weakening
should commence by late Wednesday, and Frank is forecast to
transition into a post-tropical cyclone on Thursday when it
traverses cold waters of 22-23C.  The official forecast is close to
the previous NHC prediction and the intensity consensus IVCN.

Frank continues to pick up some speed, now moving 285/9.  A
subtropical ridge to the north of the hurricane should steer Frank
generally west-northwestward for the next couple of days.  A
westward turn is likely after that time due to Frank becoming a
more shallow cyclone. While the individual models are bouncing
around in latitude at the end of the forecast period, the dynamical
model consensus has remained rock solid since the last advisory.
Thus, no change is made to the previous NHC track forecast, which
is near or just south of the model consensus throughout the period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 21.5N 117.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 22.0N 119.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 22.9N 121.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 23.8N 122.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 24.4N 123.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  29/1800Z 24.5N 126.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 26-Jul-2016 20:33:54 UTC