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Tropical Depression TWO-E Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 020834
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022016
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 02 2016

Despite the symmetric area of convection observed on conventional
infrared imagery, several microwave passes indicate that the
low-level center is still located to the southeast or near the edge
of the thunderstorm activity due to southeasterly shear. Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB have not changed very much, but support
an initial intensity of 30 kt.  There is an opportunity for the
depression to slightly strengthen during the next day or so while
the shear decreases. After that time, an environment of higher shear
and cool SSTs should result in weakening, and the cyclone should
degenerate into a remnant low by 72 hours or sooner.

The depression is moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees
at 9 kt, steered by the flow around a nearly stationary subtropical
ridge. This general motion should continue during the next 24 to 48
hours, and as the cyclone weakens, it should move to the west and
even to the west-southwest steered by the low-level flow.  The NHC
forecast is very similar to the previous one, and it very close to
the solution provided by most of the dynamical guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 15.0N 117.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 15.4N 119.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 16.1N 121.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 16.8N 123.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 17.3N 125.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 17.5N 129.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0600Z 16.0N 132.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/0600Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila


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Page last modified: Saturday, 02-Jul-2016 08:34:39 UTC