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Tropical Depression GENEVIEVE Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 270841
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072014
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Genevieve continues to battle westerly shear.  The low-level center
remains exposed to the west of the deep convection, which has been
pulsating during the past several hours.  The initial intensity is
held at 30 kt, in agreement with a Dvorak classification from
TAFB.  The official forecast calls for little change in strength
during the next several days.  Although the strength of the system
is not expected to change much, the depression is anticipated to
become a remnant low in the next 24 h due to the continued
influence of shear and dry air.  Regeneration into a tropical
cyclone is possible, however, in a couple of days when the system
moves into a more favorable atmospheric environment.

The depression is moving westward at about 8 kt on the south side
of a low- to mid-level ridge.  A turn to the west-northwest is
expected during the next 24 to 48 hours, and that motion should
persist through the remainder of the forecast period. The official
track forecast is slightly slower than the previous one and near the
middle of the guidance envelope.

Genevieve has crossed 140W longitude and, therefore, the next
advisory on this system will be issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center. Forecast discussions can be found under AWIPS
header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA42 PHFO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 12.4N 140.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 12.4N 141.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 12.7N 143.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  28/1800Z 13.1N 144.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/0600Z 13.4N 146.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/0600Z 13.9N 148.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/0600Z 14.3N 149.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/0600Z 14.9N 151.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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Page last modified: Sunday, 27-Jul-2014 08:42:12 UTC