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Tropical Storm GENEVIEVE Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 260847
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072014
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Genevieve's deep convection weakened considerably since the last
advisory up until about 0630 UTC when a new burst began developing
to the east of the center.  Based on the poor convective
organization, satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB have decreased,
and the initial intensity is therefore lowered to 35 kt.
Genevieve's future intensity remains highly uncertain.  Strong
westerly shear is likely to continue for another 36 hours or so,
after which time the upper-level environment could become less
hostile.  The GFS and GFDL models continue to show Genevieve
maintaining or increasing in intensity while the SHIPS and LGEM
models suggest that the cyclone will become a remnant low or
dissipate sometime during the next 5 days.  If Genevieve remains
embedded within the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which is a
distinct possibility, then a weaker cyclone would be the more likely
scenario.  The official intensity forecast is very close to the
intensity consensus ICON and just a little lower than the previous
forecast during the first 48 hours to account for the new initial
intensity.

Genevieve remains within the ITCZ and has been unable to gain any
latitude.  The initial motion is 270/4 kt, and the storm is likely
to continue a westward heading and accelerate during the next day
or so due to a strengthening mid-level ridge to the north.  There
is not much spread among the track guidance although the models
have trended toward a faster forward motion.  The updated NHC track
forecast is therefore a bit faster than the previous forecast and
the model consensus TVCE, mainly during the first 48 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0900Z 12.2N 136.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 12.3N 137.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 12.5N 139.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 12.7N 141.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 13.0N 143.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  29/0600Z 13.5N 146.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  30/0600Z 14.0N 149.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  31/0600Z 14.0N 152.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg



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Page last modified: Saturday, 26-Jul-2014 08:48:02 UTC