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Hurricane FRANK Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 270233
TCDEP2

HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016

Frank surprised us tonight with another round of strengthening. The
cloud pattern presentation on satellite is the best so far with a
distinct eye surrounded by moderate convection. Objective and
subjective T-numbers from all agencies are 4.5 on the Dvorak
scale.  On this basis, the initial intensity has been adjusted to 75
kt. Most of the circulation of the small cyclone is already moving
over sea surface temperatures below 26C, so one would expect that a
gradual weakening should begin soon. By 48 hours, Frank should have
degenerated into a post-tropical cyclone over increasingly cooler
waters. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one, but
adjusted upward at 12 h due to the initial intensity increase.

Satellite fixes indicate that Frank is moving toward the west-
northwest or 290 degrees at 10 kt around the periphery of the
subtropical ridge.  Dynamical models and their derived consensus are
in excellent agreement showing the cyclone moving on the same track
for the next 2 days with some decrease in forward speed. The NHC
forecast is then in the middle of the tight guidance envelope. Once
Frank becomes a shallow system, it will probably turn westward while
it becomes steered by the low-level trade winds.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 22.0N 118.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 22.6N 120.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 23.6N 122.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 24.4N 123.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  29/0000Z 24.8N 124.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  30/0000Z 25.0N 126.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 27-Jul-2016 02:33:21 UTC