| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Post-Tropical Cyclone PAINE Forecast Discussion (Text)


Home   Public Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 210243
TCDEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 20 2016

Paine has become a swirl of low clouds that has been without deep
convection for more than 12 hours.  Since the cyclone is within
an area of strong southwesterly shear and over very cool SSTs, deep
convection is not likely to return.  As a result, the system has
become a remnant low, and this will be the final NHC advisory on
Paine.  The initial intensity of 30 kt is a blend of the various
subjective Dvorak T-numbers.  Post-tropical Paine is not expected
to be chronic, since the hostile environment and interaction with
Baja California should gradually relieve Paine of its winds,
resulting in dissipation in about 24 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 010/10 kt.  Now that the remnant
low will be steered by the low-level flow it should turn
north-northeastward, then northeastward with a reduction in
forward speed.  The new official forecast is near the consensus of
the GFS and ECMWF models.

Deep-layer moisture associated with the remnants of Paine is
expected to spread over portions of the northern Baja California
peninsula of Mexico and the southwestern United States during the
next day or so.  This could enhance the rainfall potential in these
areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 28.0N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  21/1200Z 29.1N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  22/0000Z 30.2N 115.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 21-Sep-2016 02:43:58 UTC