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Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 201432
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Although the convection has increased a little in the past
couple of hours, Polo is still a sheared cyclone. The cloud pattern
consists of a tight swirl of low clouds located on the northeastern
edge of an area of intermittent deep convection. Based on the trend
of satellite estimates, the initial intensity has been lowered to 40
kt, and these winds are probably occurring in the convection in the
southwest quadrant. The shear is forecast to increase even further,
and the cyclone is heading toward cooler waters. The combination of
these two factors should result in additional weakening, and Polo is
expected to become a tropical depression in about 24 hours. In fact,
the SHIPS and LGEM models dissipate the cyclone by 36 hours.

Polo has been moving between the northwest and west-northwest since
yesterday at about 5 to 7 kt. The cyclone is trapped south of an
amplifying mid-level ridge over Mexico, and this pattern should
force Polo to move on a west-northwest to west track until
dissipation in a few days. The NHC forecast has not changed, and
continues to be very close to the multi-model consensus.

Based on the forecast track and wind radii, tropical storm force
winds are anticipated to remain south of the Baja California
peninsula.  Since any unexpected deviation to the north of the
forecast track could bring tropical storm force winds to the coast,
the government of Mexico has wisely opted to maintain the tropical
storm watch until Polo moves away from Baja California.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 20.9N 109.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 21.3N 109.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 21.9N 111.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 22.3N 112.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 22.5N 113.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/1200Z 22.0N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/1200Z 21.5N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/1200Z 20.5N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila



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Page last modified: Saturday, 20-Sep-2014 14:32:38 UTC