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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ41 KNHC 221437
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Conventional satellite imagery shows that the cloud pattern of
Karina has been improving during the past 6 hours, and a banding eye
feature is becoming apparent in the most recent images.  An ADT
objective intensity estimate and a Dvorak classification from TAFB
support an intensity of 55 kt.  However, based on the forming
banding eye feature and an emerging small warm spot visible
in the infrared BD-curve enhancement, the initial intensity is
increased to 60 kt.  The official intensity forecast follows the
IVCN intensity model blend, with little change in intensity expected
through the next couple of days.  Beyond 48 hours, a weakening trend
should commence primarily due to the cyclone traversing cooler water
and the intrusion of a stable and dry air mass from the northwest.

The current motion is estimated to be 055/3, or northeastward,
within the mid-tropospheric flow produced by the larger tropical
storm Lowell to the north.  The deterministic models indicate that
Lowell will continue to influence Karina to move in a northeastward
to east-northeastward fashion through day 3.  At days 4 and 5, a
weakening Lowell is expected to pass to the north and northwest of
Karina while a mid-level ridge builds in behind Lowell from the
southwestern U.S.  The westward building ridge is expected to turn
Karina toward the northwest and eventually toward the west by the
end of the period.  This scenario and the official forecast is
based on the GFEX (GFS and ECMWF consensus), and is close to the
previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 15.0N 135.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 15.8N 135.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 16.6N 134.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 17.3N 132.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 17.8N 131.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  25/1200Z 19.0N 129.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  26/1200Z 20.7N 130.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  27/1200Z 22.3N 133.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts



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Page last modified: Friday, 22-Aug-2014 14:37:58 UTC