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Post-Tropical Cyclone Eleven-E Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ41 KNHC 052037
TCDEP1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Eleven-E Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112017
300 PM MDT Sat Aug 05 2017

The center of the cyclone has been devoid of deep convection for
most of the day.  A few convective bursts located well to the west
and northwest of the center have been observed periodically during
the afternoon, but they are probably not contributing to the
maintenance of the circulation, and do not meet the criteria of
organized deep convection for a tropical cyclone.  On that basis,
the cyclone has been declared a remnant low and this is the last
advisory.  For additional information on the remnant low please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

A pair of ASCAT passes around 1636 and 1722 UTC showed max winds of
about 25 kt, so the initial intensity has been set to that value.
The 1722 ASCAT-A pass also indicated that the circulation may
already be opening into a trough.  The remnants should continue to
gradually spin down over the next day or so before dissipating
entirely within about 36 hours, if not sooner, as shown by the
ECMWF, GFS, and SHIPS models.

The post-tropical cyclone has continued to move a little right of
the forecast track, perhaps due to the lack of deep convection that
could have forced it farther west with the mid- to upper-level
flow.  Instead, it should continue to be steered by the weak
low-level flow, generally north-northwestward or northwestward,
until dissipation.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 20.3N 111.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  06/0600Z 20.9N 112.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  06/1800Z 21.2N 112.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


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Page last modified: Saturday, 05-Aug-2017 20:37:57 UTC