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Hurricane KARINA Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ41 KNHC 222035
TCDEP1

HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

A symmetric convective ring or eye feature noted in a 1659 UTC SSMIS
microwave overpass and a cloud-filled eye in visible images indicate
that Karina has regained hurricane status. Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates of T4.0/65kt from both TAFB and SAB are the
basis for raising the initial intensity to 65 kt. Karina is expected
to maintain hurricane strength during the next 12 hours or so before
the cyclone moves over sub-26C sea surface temperatures and into a
less conducive thermodynamic environment. Weakening is expected to
continue through the remainder of the forecast period and Karina
is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by day 5. The new NHC
forecast is a little below the latest IVCN consensus.

The initial motion is estimated to be 050/5, or northeastward,
within the mid-tropospheric flow of large Tropical Storm Lowell
located to the north.  There is little change in the forecast track
from the previous advisory.  Karina is expected to move
northeastward to east-northeastward during the next 48 hours under
the influence of Lowell's large circulation. Through the remaining
portion of the forecast period, Karina should turn toward the
northwest and ultimately toward the west as a mid-level ridge builds
in behind Lowell from the southwestern U.S.  The NHC official
forecast is basically an update from the previous package and is
close to the GFEX (GFS and ECMWF consensus) and the TVCE multi-model
consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 15.5N 135.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 16.1N 134.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 17.0N 133.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 17.6N 132.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 18.2N 130.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z 19.5N 129.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  26/1800Z 21.0N 130.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  27/1800Z 21.7N 133.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts



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Page last modified: Friday, 22-Aug-2014 20:35:30 UTC