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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ41 KNHC 212037
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

Karina has a fairly well-organized appearance on visible satellite
imagery, and microwave images show that a partial eyewall structure
is being maintained.  Based on these factors, the initial intensity
is maintained at 50 kt for this advisory.  This is somewhat above
the most recent Dvorak estimates.  The storm should more or less
maintain its intensity for the next 24 hours or so.  Dry mid-level
air near the cyclone is expected to cause a weakening trend to begin
tomorrow and, later in the forecast period, cooler waters should
also result in weakening.  Karina is expected to degenerate into a
remnant low after 72 hours.  The official wind speed forecast is in
reasonable agreement with the intensity model consensus.

The center is easy to track in visible imagery and the motion
estimate is 160/3.  The steering of Karina is likely to be
dominated by the larger circulation of Hurricane Lowell, which
should be passing to the northeast of Karina in a few days.  The
flow over the southern and southeastern portions of Lowell's
circulation should draw Karina northeastward and, eventually,
northward during the forecast period.  The official track forecast
is similar to the latest Florida State University Superensemble
prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 14.7N 136.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 14.7N 136.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 15.3N 135.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 15.9N 134.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 16.7N 133.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 18.5N 130.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  25/1800Z 22.0N 128.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  26/1800Z 26.0N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch



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Page last modified: Thursday, 21-Aug-2014 20:37:25 UTC