| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion (Text)


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 211435
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

Although Karina's appearance on geostationary satellite imagery is
not very impressive, a recent GPM microwave satellite image showed a
partial eyewall feature.  This indicates that the inner core is well
defined, and the intensity estimate is increased to 50 kt, which is
a little above the latest Dvorak estimates.  It appears that the
vertical shear over the storm has relaxed a little, but Karina is
over marginal sea surface temperatures and the forecast track takes
the cyclone over cooler waters.  A weakening trend is likely to
commence in 24 hours or so, as shown by the official wind speed
forecast.  This forecast is a little below the intensity model
consensus.

Based on an excellent fix from the aforementioned microwave image,
the center has been repositioned a bit south of the previously
estimated track.  This yields an initial motion estimate of 180/2
kt.  Karina remains in an environment of weak steering currents at
this time.  However, as the larger Hurricane Lowell moves northwest,
the separation distance between Karina and Lowell will be
decreasing, which will increase the influence of the latter cyclone
on the former.  The flow over the southern and southeastern portions
of Lowell's circulation should cause Karina to turn toward the
northeast with some acceleration over the next few days, and
eventually move northward to north-northwestward late in the period.
The official forecast is a little slower than the dynamical model
consensus, and similar to the latest Florida State University
Superensemble track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 15.0N 136.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 14.8N 136.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 15.0N 135.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 15.6N 135.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  23/1200Z 16.4N 134.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  24/1200Z 18.5N 131.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  25/1200Z 23.0N 129.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  26/1200Z 27.5N 131.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 21-Aug-2014 14:35:28 UTC