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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion (Text)


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WTNT45 KNHC 222041
TCDAT5

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

A ragged eye has re-appeared during the past several hours, but
overall the satellite presentation of Maria has not changed much
during the past several hours.  The initial intensity is therefore
held at 110 kt pending data new data from an ongoing NOAA research
mission and an upcoming Air Force Reserve flight.  According to
various analyses, Maria is under the influence of 20 kt of
shear from the southwest, which has apparently eroded the eyewall a
bit on that side of the storm.  This shear may abate some in about
24 hours, although Maria will also be moving over an area of
gradually lowering oceanic heat content.  Maria's intensity is
therefore only expected to decrease very gradually during the next
48 hours.  After that time, the shear is expected to pick up again,
and Maria will be moving over the cold wake left behind by Jose.
As a result, a steadier weakening should ensue on days 3 through 5.
The NHC intensity forecast remains closest to the ICON intensity
consensus and is relatively unchanged from the previous advisory.

Maria is turning around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level
high centered south of Bermuda, and the initial motion estimate is
335/8 kt.  The hurricane should turn northward by 36 hours when it
moves between the high and a developing cut-off low near the U.S.
Gulf coast, and that northward motion, with some east-west wiggles,
is likely to continue through day 5.  The new track models have
shifted significantly westward on this cycle, leaving the
interpolated version of the previous forecast (OFCI) by itself on
the eastern edge of the guidance suite.  Oddly enough, the ECMWF
model went from being on the west side of the guidance envelope to
the east side, so the westward shift of the new NHC forecast on
days 3 through 5 only goes as far as that model and the TVCN
consensus.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Flooding continues in portions of Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic due to Maria's heavy rains over the past few days.
Continue to follow advice from local officials to avoid these
life-threatening flooding conditions.

2. Swells from Maria are affecting the coast of the southeastern
United States and will likely cause dangerous surf and life-
threatening rip currents for the next several days.

3. Maria will move between the east coast of the United States and
Bermuda by the middle of next week, but it is too soon to determine
what, if any, direct impacts there might be in these areas.

4. For more information on the flooding and rip current hazards in
the United States, please monitor information from your local
National Weather Service forecast office at www.weather.gov.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 23.3N  71.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 24.3N  71.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 25.9N  72.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 27.5N  72.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 28.8N  72.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z 30.7N  72.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  26/1800Z 32.5N  72.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  27/1800Z 34.5N  71.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


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Page last modified: Friday, 22-Sep-2017 20:42:40 UTC