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Post-Tropical Cyclone IDA Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT45 KNHC 272032
TCDAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015
500 PM AST SUN SEP 27 2015

Ida has lacked organized deep convection for about 15 hours now, and
it no longer meets the convective requirement of a tropical cyclone.
Therefore, Ida is classified as a remnant low and this is the last
advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system.

The circulation of the low has become increasingly elongated today,
due to the interaction with a cold front a few hundred n mi to the
north of the cyclone.  The front is expected to move closer to the
remnant low tonight and Monday, and this will likely cause the
cyclone to open up into a trough within the next few days.

The low is moving slowly westward.  A faster west-southwestward
to westward motion is expected during the next couple of days as a
low to mid-level ridge builds to the north of the system. The latest
official track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

Additional information on the remnants of Ida can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 24.5N  48.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  28/0600Z 24.1N  50.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  28/1800Z 23.9N  52.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  29/0600Z 24.0N  55.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/1800Z 24.5N  57.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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Page last modified: Thursday, 12-Nov-2015 17:48:16 UTC