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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion (Text)


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Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Once again tonight, the cloud pattern has become more impressive
with a distinct eye of 30 n mi in diameter surrounded by a ring of
very deep convection.  Wind data sampled by the reconnaissance plane
this evening perhaps do not justify winds as high as 100 kt.
However, since the central pressure has dropped to 942 mb, and both
objective and subjective Dvorak numbers have increased slightly due
to the improvement of the cloud pattern, the initial intensity is
kept at 100 kt in this advisory.  During the next 24 hours while
Maria is moving through a low shear environment and over warm
waters, slight strengthening could occur. However, this will not be
a significant change, and I have opted to show Maria with the same
intensity for about a day or so. From 36 hours and beyond, the
hurricane will find cooler waters and gradual weakening should then
begin.

Satellite and recon fixes indicate that the hurricane is moving
toward the north or 350 degrees at 8 kt, steered by the flow between
the Atlantic subtropical ridge and a cut-off low/trough digging
southward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The subtropical high is
forecast to amplify, and this pattern should keep Maria moving
slowly northward for the next 3 days. As the subtropical ridge
slides eastward, Maria will encounter the mid-latitude westerlies
and should recurve away from the United States coast. The track
guidance unanimously brings the hurricane northward to near latitude
34N where recurvature should occur. The uncertainty is how close to
the North Carolina coast Maria's turn will occur. At this time and
with the current guidance, the core of Maria should turn northeast
well east of the Outer Banks. However, Maria is a large cyclone and
the tropical storm force winds extend outward a great distance.
These winds could eventually reach a portion of the North Carolina
coast. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and
follows very closely the multi-model consensus and the corrected
consensus HCCA.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria's forecast track continues to be northward, paralleling the
U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will
occur along portions of the coast next week. Interests along the
coast of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic should monitor the
progress of Maria, as tropical storm or hurricane watches may be
needed for part of this area on Sunday.

2. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the
southeastern United States and are expected to reach the
Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday.  These swells will likely cause
dangerous surf and rip currents at the beach through much of next
week.  For more information, please monitor information from your
local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 27.0N  72.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 28.2N  72.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 29.5N  73.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 30.5N  73.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 31.5N  73.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 33.2N  73.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 34.5N  72.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 35.5N  69.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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Page last modified: Sunday, 24-Sep-2017 02:56:31 UTC