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Post-Tropical Cyclone Sean Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT44 KNHC 160233
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Sean Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192023
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2023

A few showers and thunderstorms continue to pulse in association 
with Sean, but the activity can no longer be considered organized 
or persistent.  Dvorak final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB have either 
been T1.0 or Too Weak to Classify for the past 18 hours, and as a 
result, Sean has degenerated into a remnant low.  Maximum winds are 
estimated to be 25 kt and are expected to gradually weaken during 
the next day or so.  The remnant low is forecast to turn westward 
overnight, and global models indicate that the circulation should 
open up into a trough by 36 hours, if not sooner.  The remnant 
trough is likely to pass near or north of the northern Leeward 
Islands around midweek.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on 
this system.  Additional information on this system can be found in 
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under 
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 18.2N  49.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  16/1200Z 18.4N  51.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  17/0000Z 18.7N  53.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


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Page last modified: Monday, 16-Oct-2023 02:33:47 UTC