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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT44 KNHC 271441
TCDAT4

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

Some deep convection has redeveloped near the center of Cristobal
during the past few hours, mainly in the western semicircle.
Satellite imagery shows dry air wrapping south and east of the
center interspersed with a couple of convective bands. The initial
intensity remains 70 kt, and another aircraft will be investigating
the cyclone this afternoon. There is still some potential for
Cristobal to strengthen as a tropical cyclone during the next day or
so before it begins extratropical transition, which should be
complete shortly after 48 hours. Cristobal is expected to be a
powerful extratropical cyclone by Friday night or Saturday, and then
slowly weaken before being absorbed by another cyclone at the end of
the period. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
one and close to the IVCN intensity consensus while Cristobal
remains a tropical cyclone.

Cristobal has wobbled a little to the left this morning, with an
initial motion estimate of 355/10. All of the guidance is unanimous
in turning Cristobal north-northeastward and then northeastward
during the next 24 hours and accelerating the cyclone into the
mid-latitude westerlies. A continued northeasterly motion is
expected through the remainder of the cyclone's life cycle. The
track model guidance is tightly clustered, but the NHC forecast has
shifted to the left of the previous one by about a half a degree due
to the initial position and motion being to the left of the previous
track. The new NHC track is close to a consensus of the GFS and
ECMWF models through 72 hours, and a little south of that consensus
at 96 hours.

The extratropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with
the Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 31.8N  72.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 34.0N  70.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 36.5N  66.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 39.6N  59.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 43.5N  52.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  30/1200Z 50.0N  40.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  31/1200Z 56.0N  29.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  01/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Brennan



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 27-Aug-2014 14:41:57 UTC