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Post-Tropical Cyclone MELISSA Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT44 KNHC 220233
TCDAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142013
1100 PM AST THU NOV 21 2013

MELISSA HAS LACKED ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 9 HOURS.  IT
IS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE THAT WAS
HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION...AND IT IS NOW OVER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 17C-18C.  BASED ON THIS...MELISSA HAS BECOME A
GALE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
REDUCED TO 45 KT BASED ON TWO RECENT ASCAT OVERPASSES...AND THE
INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED USING THESE DATA. WHILE
THE CYCLONE IS POST-TROPICAL...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES TONIGHT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 070/24. MELISSA SHOULD TURN EASTWARD AND
DECELERATE ON FRIDAY AS IT MOVES AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE INTO WEAKER STEERING FLOW.  THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
TURN SOUTHEASTWARD ON SATURDAY AS IT REACHES THE EASTERN END OF THE
RIDGE.

THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ON FRIDAY AS IT
MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
MELISSA.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO HEADER
FQNT50 LFPW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 41.5N  29.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  22/1200Z 42.1N  25.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  23/0000Z 42.2N  20.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  23/1200Z 41.4N  17.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  24/0000Z 39.9N  15.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



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Page last modified: Friday, 22-Nov-2013 02:33:17 UTC