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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT44 KNHC 301448
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
1000 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

Deep convection once again increased in association with the
cyclone this morning, and satellite images show that very heavy
rains continue over portions of western Cuba, where significant
flooding is likely occurring.  However, the overall organization of
the system has not changed much since last night.  Dvorak T-numbers
from TAFB and SAB have not increased, so the intensity is kept at 30
kt for this advisory.  Another NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the cyclone this afternoon to see if the
depression has become a tropical storm.  The dynamical guidance
indicates that the vertical shear over the system will decrease
slightly during the next day or so but, starting around 48 hours,
westerly shear is forecast to begin increasing.  This should limit
strengthening while the system approaches northern Florida.  The
official intensity forecast was lowered slightly around 48 hours, in
agreement with the latest intensity model consensus.  At the
moment, there is no intensity guidance that makes this system a
hurricane prior to landfall.

Visible and microwave imagery, in particular a 1222 UTC SSMIS
overpass, suggest that the center is located near the northern edge
of the dense overcast, and the motion is estimated to be
west-northwestward or 290/6 kt.  There is little change to the
track forecast philosophy.  A mid-tropospheric trough that is
expected to develop over the southeastern United States should
induce a turn toward the north, and then northeast, with a gradual
increase in forward speed over the next few days. This would bring
the center of the cyclone across the northern Florida peninsula
within 60-72 hours.  The official track forecast is about the same
as the previous one, and is mainly a blend of the GFS and ECMWF
predictions.

Given the current forecast, a tropical storm watch may be required
for a portion of the Florida Gulf coast later today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 24.0N  87.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  31/0000Z 24.5N  87.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  31/1200Z 25.4N  87.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 26.9N  86.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 28.5N  84.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 31.6N  79.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 34.0N  72.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  04/1200Z 36.5N  66.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 30-Aug-2016 14:48:27 UTC