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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT44 KNHC 281445
TCDAT4

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
1100 AM AST THU AUG 28 2014

The satellite presentation of Cristobal has become much more
symmetric than at any earlier time during its life. The center is
embedded within an area of deep convection and a warm spot has
become evident in recent visible satellite images. T-numbers from
both SAB and TAFB are 4.0 on the Dvorak Scale and the initial
intensity is set at 65 kt. Some strengthening is expected
today while the hurricane remains over warm water.  The cyclone will
begin to interact with a frontal zone tonight and should complete
extratropical transition on Friday.  The global models indicate that
the extratropical low will remain a powerful cyclone over the north
Atlantic during the next few days.  The low is forecast to merge
with another large extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic in
3 to 4 days.

Cristobal is moving northeastward at about 23 kt.  The cyclone
should continue to accelerate northeastward in the mid-latitude
westerlies during the next day or so.  The updated NHC track is
close to the previous advisory and near the middle of the guidance
envelope.  The track, intensity and wind radii forecasts of the
extratropical low have been coordinated with the Ocean Prediction
Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 36.9N  65.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 39.7N  59.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 43.8N  51.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 48.0N  43.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  30/1200Z 51.5N  36.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  31/1200Z 61.1N  25.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  01/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown



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Page last modified: Thursday, 28-Aug-2014 14:46:02 UTC