Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion (Text)

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WTNT44 KNHC 261438

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2017

Lee is small but impressive hurricane this morning with a
well-defined eye on visible satellite images.  Satellite intensity
estimates are a little higher and support an initial wind speed of
at least 90 kt.  Further strengthening is possible for the next day
or so while Lee continues moving over warm waters with relatively
light shear.  Most of the guidance shows Lee getting a bit stronger,
and the cyclone stands some chance of becoming a major hurricane
within the next 24 hours or so.  The official forecast is raised
from the previous one, and is on the high side of the guidance.
Weakening should begin on Thursday as shear increases and water
temperatures decrease.  The small tropical cyclone should weaken
fairly quickly at higher latitudes and become absorbed in a large
extratropical low over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean.

Lee continues moving westward at 9 kt.  The hurricane should
gradually turn to the northwest on Wednesday and to the north on
Thursday as it moves around a ridge over the east-central Atlantic.
Thereafter, Lee is likely to accelerate to the northeast as it
enters the faster mid-latitude flow.  There are some speed
differences in the models but overall not a lot of cross-track
spread.  The new forecast is faster than the previous one, in the
direction of the latest HFIP corrected-consensus model.


INIT  26/1500Z 29.9N  53.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 30.0N  55.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 30.6N  56.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 31.7N  56.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 33.3N  56.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  29/1200Z 39.0N  51.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  30/1200Z 46.0N  35.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Blake

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 26-Sep-2017 14:39:53 UTC