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Post-Tropical Cyclone NINE Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT44 KNHC 230236
TCDAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092014
1000 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Radar data from Mexico indicates that the cyclone moved inland
between Campeche and Ciudad del Carmen just after 0000 UTC this
evening.  Surface and aircraft reconnaissance data suggest that the
maximum winds had decreased to around 25 kt and that the minimum
pressure was 1004 mb when the depression crossed the coast.  The
system has not produced a significant area of organized deep
convection since late this morning and it is therefore being
declared a remnant low at this time.  The low is expected to weaken
during the next couple of days while it moves over the Yucatan
Peninsula.  If the low emerges over the northwestern Caribbean Sea,
dry air and westerly shear are expected to prevent regeneration.
The new NHC forecast follows the last couple runs of the GFS and
call for dissipation in 3 to 4 days.

The cyclone is moving east-southeastward at about 5 kt. A slow
east-southeast to southeast motion is expected to continue during
the next few days.  The updated NHC track has been shifted a little
left of the previous track to be closer the latest GFS guidance and
the multi-model consensus.

Rains currently affecting western Cuba and south Florida are not
directly related to this system.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 18.9N  90.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  23/1200Z 18.8N  90.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  24/0000Z 18.5N  89.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/1200Z 18.2N  88.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/0000Z 17.8N  88.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/0000Z 17.3N  87.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown



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Page last modified: Thursday, 23-Oct-2014 02:37:12 UTC