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Post-Tropical Cyclone LISA Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT43 KNHC 250240
TCDAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2016

No deep convection was observed near the center of Lisa between
1200 UTC yesterday and 0200 UTC today. Although one small areas of
convection has tried to develop since then, it is insufficient to
meet the organized deep convection requirement for a tropical
cyclone.  Yesterday's overnight burst of convection seems to have
been supported in part by an upper level low, however Lisa has now
moved farther to the west of that feature.  In the absence of any
other synoptic-scale forcing, the redevelopment of widespread deep
convection is unlikely. No new scatterometer data is available
tonight, so the initial intensity has been held at 30 kt.  Without
any convection to maintain the circulation, Lisa should gradually
spin down over the next day or so before dissipating ahead of a
deep-layer trough approaching from the west.

The low-level remnants of Lisa are moving around a high pressure
system centered near the Azores.  The global models are in good
agreement that this high will move retreat eastward over the next
day or so, which should cause Lisa to turn toward the north in
12-24 hours.  A turn toward the north-northeast ahead of the
approaching front is possible before the circulation dissipates
entirely.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 25.8N  40.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  25/1200Z 27.2N  42.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  26/0000Z 29.3N  42.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  26/1200Z 31.4N  42.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven/Zelinsky


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Page last modified: Sunday, 25-Sep-2016 02:41:11 UTC