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Post-Tropical Cyclone LORENZO Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT43 KNHC 241450
TCDAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132013
1100 AM AST THU OCT 24 2013

DRY AIR AND NORTHERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON LORENZO.  THE
SYSTEM HAS NOT HAD ANY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR OVER 12 HOURS
AND HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS.  AS A RESULT...LORENZO HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW AND THIS WILL BE THE FINAL NHC
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25
KT...IN ACCORDANCE WITH A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND A
RECENT ASCAT PASS.  ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...DRY AIR AND COOLING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD CAUSE THE LOW
TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN.  THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BY LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING
EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD
CONTINUE HEADING NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION AS IT REMAINS
WITHIN LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 30.2N  47.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  25/0000Z 31.0N  46.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  25/1200Z 32.0N  45.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  26/0000Z 33.0N  44.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



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Page last modified: Thursday, 24-Oct-2013 14:51:14 UTC