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Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Discussion (Text)


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Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  64
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

Jose's structure continues to consist of bands of shallow to
moderate convection that are well removed to from the center, mainly
in the northeast and northwest quadrants.  Dvorak Final-T numbers
from TAFB and SAB have fallen a little bit, but due to the lack of
deep convection near the center, it isn't clear how applicable the
Dvorak technique is in this case.  The intensity has therefore been
held at 50 kt, in deference to earlier ASCAT and aircraft data.
Another reconnaissance mission is scheduled for later this morning,
and this should provide more information on Jose's intensity and
wind radii.

The intensity guidance is still in very good agreement that Jose
will continue to gradually weaken.  I have no reason to doubt this,
since Jose will remain over cold waters and embedded within a fairly
dry environment.  Little change was made to the previous intensity
forecast, except to show Jose becoming post-tropical within 36
hours, based on the latest GFS and ECMWF model runs.

A deep-layer trough to the northeast of Jose has continued to pull
away, and the tropical storm has come to a near stop.  The
estimated motion is 90/2 kt, but it may be even slower than that.
The global models continue to agree that Jose will remain within
weak steering flow through the forecast period.  The new NHC
forecast remains close to the various consensus aids and keeps Jose
nearly stationary through 96 h.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the
U.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct
impacts in portions of extreme southeastern New England during the
next day or two, and a tropical storm warning remains in effect for
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket.

2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of
southern New England during the next few days.  Please see products
issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the
U.S. east coast, and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip
current conditions for the next several days in these areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0900Z 39.8N  67.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 39.7N  67.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 39.8N  68.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 39.8N  68.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  23/0600Z 39.6N  69.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  24/0600Z 39.4N  69.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  25/0600Z 39.5N  68.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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Page last modified: Thursday, 21-Sep-2017 08:39:03 UTC