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Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Discussion (Text)


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Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  66
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

Jose is still producing some convective bands well to the north and
west of the center.  The outer-most bands are brushing the coast of
extreme southeastern New England, where tropical-storm-force winds,
especially in gusts, have been occurring for much of the day.  An
ASCAT pass from earlier today showed maximum winds near 45 kt, and
since the cyclone appears to have weakened since that time, the
initial wind speed is lowered slightly to that value.

Cool waters, dry air, and an increase in wind shear should cause
Jose to continue weakening, and model simulated satellite images
suggest that Jose should become a post-tropical cyclone in about 24
hours, or sooner.  The intensity models are in very good agreement,
and the NHC forecast is an update of the previous one.

Jose has been meandering off the southern New England coastline
during the past several hours.  Since the cyclone is expected to
remain in weak steering currents, little motion is forecast during
the next few days.  The NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous one and in general agreement with the consensus aids.

The initial wind radii have been modified based on ASCAT data from
around 1500 UTC.  The forecast wind radii follows the guidance
provided by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are occuring
within the tropical storm warning area.  These conditions are
expected to continue through tonight.

2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of
southern New England during the next few days.  Please see products
issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the
U.S. east coast, and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip
current conditions for the next couple of days in these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 39.6N  67.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 39.5N  68.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 39.5N  68.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  23/0600Z 39.2N  68.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  23/1800Z 39.0N  68.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  24/1800Z 38.9N  67.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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Page last modified: Thursday, 21-Sep-2017 20:37:44 UTC