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Tropical Depression BILL Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT42 KNHC 170834
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022015
400 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

While radar data show that Bill is maintaining a good
convective banding structure, surface observations indicate that
the cyclone has weakened to a tropical depression over central
Texas.  The initial intensity is 30 kt, with these winds occurring
in rainbands near and east of the center.  The large-scale models
suggest that only slow weakening will occur during the next 24-36
hours, and Bill is likely to remain a tropical cyclone until the
center moves into eastern Oklahoma on Thursday.  After that, the
cyclone is expected to degenerate to a remnant low, with the low
being absorbed by a frontal system over the eastern United States
in about 96 hours.

The initial motion is 360/11.  Bill is expected to moved northward
for the next 12-24 hours on the west side of the subtropical ridge.
Subsequently, the cyclone should turn northeastward as it enters
the westerlies.  The track model guidance is in good agreement with
this scenario, and the new forecast track lies close to the model
consensus.

The main hazard from Bill is expected to be heavy rainfall and
flooding across portions of eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma
over the next day or two.  Please see products from your local
National Weather Service office for more information on the flood
threat.

This is the last advisory on Bill issued by the National Hurricane
Center.  Future information on this system can be found in Public
Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 10
AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and on
the web at http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 31.0N  97.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  17/1800Z 32.6N  97.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  18/0600Z 34.3N  96.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  18/1800Z 35.5N  95.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  19/0600Z 36.5N  93.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  20/0600Z 38.5N  89.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 17-Jun-2015 08:34:46 UTC