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Tropical Depression FRED Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT41 KNHC 042033
TCDAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
500 PM AST FRI SEP 04 2015

The depression consists of a very tight circulation largely devoid
of deep convection. Recently a convective band is forming east of
the center, but it appears that each new burst of convection is
weaker than the previous one. It is estimated that the winds are
still 30 kt, and given the strong shear the NHC forecast calls for
Fred to become a remnant low in 24 hours or so. The GFS and UK
global models, as well as the SHIPS/GFS and SHIPS/ECMWF intensity
guidance, regenerate Fred by the end of the forecast period, and so
does the official forecast.

The steering pattern has not changed yet, and the depression is
still moving on a general west to west-northwest track at 8 kt. In
about 48 hours, a strong mid-latitude trough is forecast by the
global models to deepen in the central Atlantic. This pattern should
force the depression or its remnants to recurve and become embedded
within the mid-latitude westerly flow. The NHC forecast is within
the guidance envelope during the next 2 to 3 days and then lies
between the GFS and the multi-model consensus. The GFS insists on
keeping Fred meandering across the North Atlantic for more than a
week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 22.6N  39.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 22.8N  40.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 23.3N  41.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/0600Z 24.0N  42.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/1800Z 25.5N  42.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/1800Z 28.5N  39.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 96H  08/1800Z 31.5N  35.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H  09/1800Z 33.5N  31.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION

$$
Forecaster Avila


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Page last modified: Friday, 04-Sep-2015 20:33:32 UTC