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Tropical Depression ANA Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT41 KNHC 102031
TCDAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012015
500 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015

Surface and radar data indicate that Ana is moving farther inland.
The estimated intensity is 30 kt, and these winds are confined to
the coastal areas of North Carolina.  Continued weakening is
expected, and the system should degenerate into a post-tropical
remnant low within 24 hours.  Although a forecast track is shown
through 48 hours, it should be noted that the global models show the
system degenerating into an open trough sooner than that time.  In
any event, the remnants of Ana are likely to be absorbed by a larger
extratropical cyclone over Atlantic Canada.

The initial motion estimate is north-northeastward, or 020/4 kt.
The steering flow associated with a large mid-level trough to the
west of Ana should cause the cyclone to turn northeastward with
some acceleration over the next day or two.  The official track
forecast lies between the dynamical model consensus and the latest
ECMWF solution.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Ana.  Future information on this system can be found in Public
Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 11
PM EDT under AWIPS header TCPAT1 AND WMO header WTNT31 KWNH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 34.4N  78.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 35.3N  78.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  11/1800Z 37.0N  76.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  12/0600Z 39.3N  73.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  12/1800Z 42.0N  68.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


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Page last modified: Sunday, 10-May-2015 20:32:22 UTC