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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT41 KNHC 172035
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 PM AST WED SEP 17 2014

An earlier NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft research mission showed a
maximum 700 mb flight-level wind of 91 kt, with peak SFMR winds of
71 kt. Since the plane left a few hours ago, the satellite
appearance of Edouard has become less organized, with warming
convection in the eyewall and a cooling eye.  The initial intensity
is set to 75 kt for this advisory, a blend of the SFMR data and the
higher satellite classifications.  A combination of cooling waters
and increasing shear should keep Edouard on a general weakening
trend throughout the 120-hour period.  Post-tropical transition is
indicated in the latest NHC forecast at 48 hours due to Edouard
moving over cold waters with strong shear. The cyclone is expected
to dissipate by day 5, which is in good agreement with almost all of
the global models.

Edouard is moving faster to the northeast, now 055/23.  A gradual
turn to the east is expected, along with some decrease in forward
speed by late tomorrow, due to Edouard moving becoming more steered
by the subtropical ridge rather than faster mid-latitude westerlies.
Edouard (or its remnants) should turn southeastward in a few days
while it moves around a large trough over the eastern Atlantic.
Although the general synoptic pattern has not changed, the track
guidance has taken a notable eastward shift in this cycle,
apparently due to the weaker low-level circulation decoupling from
the mid-level northerly flow.  Consequently, the latest forecast is
shifted quite a bit to the east at day 4, although there probably
won't be much of Edouard by that point.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 37.8N  51.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 39.4N  47.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 40.4N  42.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 40.2N  39.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 40.0N  38.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  20/1800Z 40.0N  34.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  21/1800Z 38.0N  31.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 17-Sep-2014 20:35:54 UTC