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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT41 KNHC 021437
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
1100 AM AST WED SEP 02 2015

Fred has been without deep convection for about 12 hours and
consists of a tight swirl of low- to mid-level clouds.  The
circulation remains fairly strong and the initial wind speed is
maintained at 40 kt, which is in agreement with data from a recent
ASCAT overpass.  If organized deep convection does not return very
soon, which appears unlikely, Fred will become a post-tropical
cyclone this afternoon.  Strong westerly shear, marginal sea surface
temperatures, and dry mid-level air should cause the circulation to
gradually spin down during the next few days.  Very late in the
forecast period, the remnant low could be over slightly warmer SSTs
and in an area of lower shear.  Redevelopment appears unlikely,
however, due to a dry and stable air mass over the east-central
Atlantic.

Fred is moving west-northwestward at about 9 kt.  The forecast calls
for the cyclone to continue on a west-northwestward heading over
the next 72 hours to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge over the
eastern Atlantic.  After that time, the remnant low is predicted to
turn turn northwestward, and then north-northwestward while it
moves around the western periphery of a low-level high pressure
area centered south of the Azores.  The new NHC track forecast is
in good agreement with the latest ECMWF, which is along the
southern edge of the model envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 19.8N  30.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 20.2N  32.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  03/1200Z 20.9N  33.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/0000Z 21.5N  35.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/1200Z 21.9N  36.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1200Z 22.7N  39.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/1200Z 24.2N  41.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/1200Z 26.5N  42.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 02-Sep-2015 14:37:24 UTC