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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT41 KNHC 150255
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 14 2014

Edouard's cloud pattern has not changed much in organization this
evening.  Although the eye had become better defined and warmer, it
has recently disappeared.  Convective cloud top temperatures in the
central dense overcast have also warmed during the past several
hours. There is some evidence that dry air may be wrapping into
portions of the inner core of the hurricane. Dvorak intensity
estimates were a consensus T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB, so
the initial intensity estimate is held at 75 kt.

The environment ahead of Edouard is likely to become more conducive
for intensification during the next day or two.  While traversing
warm waters, the shear is forecast to reach a minimum in 36-48
hours. The only inhibiting factor would seem to be dry environmental
air wrapping around the circulation.  After achieving a peak
intensity near the point of recurvature, gradual weakening is likely
to commence while the hurricane moves toward decreasing sea surface
temperatures. A considerable increase in southwesterly shear and
dramatically cooler waters should hasten the weakening trend beyond
72 hours. Edouard's interaction with a shortwave trough moving
across Atlantic Canada in 4-5 days should lead to the beginning of
extratropical transition at that time, but the guidance is not clear
cut on a completion of this process by day 5.  The intensity
forecast is near or just above the multi-model consensus through 72
hours and near or a little below it at the end of the forecast
period.

The initial motion estimate is 305/13 kt. Edouard should continue on
a northwestward heading on the south side of subtropical ridge until
the ridge retreats eastward in a day or so.  This change in the
steering pattern should result in Edouard's turning sharply
northward  in about 36 hours.  The hurricane should then be captured
by a strong mid-latitude westerly flow and accelerate northeastward
in 3-4 days, and turn generally eastward with a decrease in forward
speed by day 5. The track guidance has shifted significantly to the
left this cycle, and the official forecast track has been moved in
that direction.  The new track forecast, however, lies on the far
right side of the guidance envelope.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 26.2N  53.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 27.2N  54.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 28.6N  56.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 30.2N  57.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 32.4N  56.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  18/0000Z 37.4N  51.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  19/0000Z 41.2N  42.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  20/0000Z 41.2N  36.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



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Page last modified: Monday, 15-Sep-2014 02:56:06 UTC