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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT41 KNHC 191458
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

Edouard is weakening rapidly.  Strong northwesterly shear has
caused the low- and mid-level centers of the cyclone to decouple
during the last 12 hours. The system has also been devoid of any
deep convection for some time, and unless it returns, Edouard
will be declared a post-tropical cyclone later today. Using a blend
of Dvorak CI and Final T numbers, the initial intensity estimate is
lowered to 40 kt. A 1214 UTC ASCAT pass showed believable 33-kt wind
vectors in the southwestern quadrant, suggesting that somewhat
higher winds are possible elsewhere in the southern half of the
circulation. Edouard is expected to spin down further during the
next couple of days due to a continuation of strong northwesterly
shear and its passage over cold water.  Extratropical transition is
indicated by the global models in about 48 hours.  The intensity
forecast is a bit lower than the previous one and now shows
remnant low status sooner.  Dissipation is expected in about 3 days.

Edouard has significantly decelerated during the last 6-12 hours,
and the initial motion estimate is 110/03.  The cyclone is expected
to move eastward with some increase in forward speed during the next
day or so as it rounds the northern side of a low-level ridge to
the south.  A turn toward the southeast and south is shown after
that time as the extratropical cyclone dives into the flow on the
west side of a low pressure area over the northeastern Atlantic.
The track forecast is basically an update of the previous one, only
shifted a bit to the left but not as far left as the ECMWF and GFS
solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 39.5N  38.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 39.6N  37.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 39.5N  35.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  21/0000Z 38.9N  32.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  21/1200Z 37.3N  30.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  22/1200Z 33.0N  30.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Huffman



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Page last modified: Friday, 19-Sep-2014 14:59:03 UTC