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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT41 KNHC 162057
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 PM AST TUE SEP 16 2014

Microwave and NOAA Hurricane Hunter radar data suggest that Edouard
has begun an eyewall cycle, with a pair of concentric rings seen in
a 1605 UTC GCOM microwave image.  The last few passes from the
aircraft had a maximum flight-level wind of 93 kt, with 85 kt from
the SFMR observed a few hours ago.  These data suggest an initial
wind speed of 90 kt for this advisory.  Since the hurricane has less
than 24 hours over warm water, it is not expected to complete its
eyewall cycle, and will probably slowly weaken.  After that time,
Edouard should continue to lose strength when it moves over much
cooler water and into higher shear.  The NHC forecast is lower than
the previous one, below most of the guidance for the first day in
consideration of the current structure, then is blended with the
intensity consensus after that time. The cyclone is expected to
become post-tropical in the day 3 or 4 time frame, and become
extratropical by day 5 since most of the global models show it
developing frontal features by that time.

Edouard has turned toward the north and is moving a little
faster at about 13 kt.  The hurricane will move northeastward into
the mid-latitude westerlies during the next 24-36 hours while it
moves on the northwest side of the subtropical high.  An eastward
acceleration is expected by 48 hours, and the cyclone is still
forecast to turn southeastward and slow down on days 4 and 5 when it
moves around a trough over the eastern Atlantic.  Model guidance is
in much better agreement than the last cycle and the official
forecast is very close to the previous one, near the model
consensus and the ECMWF model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 32.3N  57.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 34.3N  56.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 37.2N  52.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 39.7N  47.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 40.9N  42.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z 40.2N  37.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  20/1800Z 39.4N  34.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  21/1800Z 36.0N  33.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 16-Sep-2014 20:57:15 UTC