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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTNT41 KNHC 022034
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
500 PM AST WED SEP 02 2015

Thunderstorm activity has redeveloped about 70 n mi north of the
center this afternoon.  Thus, the system remains a tropical cyclone
for a bit longer.  The initial intensity is set at 35 kt, partially
based on the earlier ASCAT data and an 1800 UTC Dvorak CI number of
2.5 from TAFB.  Strong westerly shear and dry mid-level air
should cause Fred to weaken and become a remnant low within the
next 12 to 24 hours.  Because Fred will remain over marginal SSTs
for the next couple of days, however, it is difficult to predict
when the system will completely lose its organized deep convection.
Near the end of the forecast period the cyclone could move into a
slightly more favorable environment, but few of the statistical or
dynamical models indicate restrengthening at this time.

The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged.  Fred should move
west-northwestward to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge over
the eastern Atlantic during the next 2-3 days.  After that time,
the cyclone should turn northwestward, and then northward around
the western portion of a high pressure area located south of the
Azores.  The new NHC track is similar to the previous forecast and
is near the middle of the model envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 20.3N  31.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 20.7N  32.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 21.4N  34.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/0600Z 21.9N  36.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/1800Z 22.4N  37.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1800Z 23.4N  40.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/1800Z 25.3N  41.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/1800Z 27.5N  42.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 02-Sep-2015 20:34:29 UTC