|
|
000
FOPZ14 KNHC 140832
PWSEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATRICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192009
0900 UTC WED OCT 14 2009
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATRICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 14 50 54 54 NA NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 78 43 38 34 NA NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 8 7 9 12 NA NA NA
HURRICANE X X X 1 NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 X X X 1 NA NA NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 25KT 20KT 20KT 20KT NA NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Get Storm Info
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Advisory Archive -
Mobile Products -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds -
About NHC Products
Tropical Analysis and Forecasting
Atlantic Products -
E Pac Products -
About TAFB Products
Learn About Hurricanes
Hurricane Awareness -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division -
Hurricane Hunters -
The Saffir-Simpson-Hurricane Scale -
Forecasting Models -
Inland Wind Model -
Eyewall Wind-Profiles -
TPC Glossary -
TPC Acronyms -
Storm Names
Breakpoints
Hurricane History
NHC/TPC Archives -
Forecast Verification -
Climatology -
1492-1996 (Atlantic) -
1900-2000 (USA) -
Most Expensive -
Most Intense -
US Strikes by Decade -
US Strikes by State
About Us
About the TPC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
TPC Personnel -
NOAA Locator -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library -
WX4NHC Amateur Radio Station
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Prediction Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: [an error occurred while processing this directive]