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Tropical Storm POLO Wind Speed Probabilities (Text)


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000
FOPZ12 KNHC 182037
PWSEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014               
2100 UTC THU SEP 18 2014                                            

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                                         

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   8(11)   7(18)   X(18)   X(18)

SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)   5(14)   1(15)   X(15)

LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)

CULIACAN       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

MAZATLAN       34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

SAN BLAS       34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

P VALLARTA     34  3   3( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

BARRA NAVIDAD  34  7   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

MANZANILLO     34  3   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  1   2( 3)   3( 6)   8(14)   4(18)   X(18)   X(18)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)

ISLAS MARIAS   34  2   4( 6)   5(11)   1(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    


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Page last modified: Thursday, 18-Sep-2014 20:38:04 UTC