| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Tropical Storm ERIKA Wind Speed Probabilities (Text)


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


000
FONT15 KNHC 290247
PWSAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015               
0300 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015                                            

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)

MAYPORT NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)

JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)

DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   2(11)

ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   3(11)   1(12)

COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   4(11)   1(12)

PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   4(11)   1(12)

FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   2(11)   1(12)

W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)   1(12)   1(13)

MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   4(16)   2(18)   X(18)

MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   8( 8)  16(24)   3(27)   1(28)   1(29)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  19(24)   5(29)   X(29)   1(30)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)

MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)   6(24)   2(26)   1(27)
MARCO ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)

FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   9(21)   3(24)   1(25)
FT MYERS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  12(20)   4(24)   2(26)
VENICE FL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   5(17)   3(20)
TAMPA FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   6(14)   3(17)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   5(14)

ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   4(15)

APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   3(16)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   9(15)   4(19)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)

PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   5(15)

COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)

MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)

PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)

GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   4(14)

MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)

GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)

STENNIS MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)

GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)

NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

ANDROS         34  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

GREAT EXUMA    34  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

MAYAGUANA      34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   2(12)   1(13)   X(13)

ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   9( 9)   2(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)

CAMAGUEY       34  X  16(16)   5(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34 17  30(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)

LES CAYES      34 15   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 92   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)

CAPE BEATA     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 29-Aug-2015 02:47:47 UTC