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Tropical Storm BERTHA Wind Speed Probabilities (Text)


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TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014
0300 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   2(11)

ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)

GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   1(13)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  11(17)   1(18)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)

MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   5(19)   X(19)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  20(21)   1(22)   1(23)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  23(25)   1(26)   X(26)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
PUERTO PLATA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  17(27)   X(27)   X(27)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
SANTO DOMINGO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

PONCE          34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  37(41)   1(42)   X(42)   X(42)
PONCE          50  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
PONCE          64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

SAN JUAN       34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  24(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
SAN JUAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
SAN JUAN       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   7( 7)  11(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)

SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)  16(16)  12(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   1( 1)   9(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

BARBUDA        34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

ANTIGUA        34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

GUADELOUPE     34  X   5( 5)   9(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)

AVES           34  X   1( 1)  54(55)   1(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
AVES           50  X   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
AVES           64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

DOMINICA       34  X  29(29)  12(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
DOMINICA       50  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

MARTINIQUE     34  X  53(53)   4(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
MARTINIQUE     50  X   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
MARTINIQUE     64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

SAINT LUCIA    34  X  30(30)   2(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
SAINT LUCIA    50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAINT VINCENT  34  X   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

BARBADOS       34  1  21(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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