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Tropical Storm MARIE Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 280234
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
800 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

The convective pattern has not changed since the last advisory.
However, the center of Marie is now over SSTs less than 24C, and
the circulation continues to gradually spin down.  ASCAT data still
showed a sizable area of 50-kt winds several hours ago, so the
initial intensity is only lowered to 50 kt, which is on the higher
side of the satellite intensity estimates.  Water temperatures
between 22-23C and a stable environment will cause the cyclone to
continue weakening, and Marie could become a convection-free
post-tropical cyclone in about 24 hours.

A strengthening mid-level high near the coast of California and
the Baja California peninsula has caused Marie to accelerate a bit,
with an initial motion of 300/14 kt.  Marie is forecast to turn
northwestward around this high during the next 48 hours, but then
slow down considerably and turn westward and west-southwestward by
the end of the forecast period when it is steered by lower-level
flow.  The updated NHC track forecast is a little bit farther north
than the previous one beyond day 3 during the remnant low phase,
but otherwise there are no significant changes.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula and the coast of southern California will
gradually subside through Friday.  These swells could still produce
life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal
flooding around the time of high tide.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 23.8N 126.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 25.0N 128.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 26.7N 130.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  29/1200Z 28.4N 132.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/0000Z 29.6N 133.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/0000Z 30.5N 135.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0000Z 30.5N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/0000Z 30.0N 139.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg



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Page last modified: Thursday, 28-Aug-2014 02:35:02 UTC