ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Ramon Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023 100 PM PST Sat Nov 25 2023 Ramon has changed little through the day. There have been a few deep bursts of convection that continue to partially obscure the surface circulation. Satellite-derived surface wind speed data showed peak winds between 33-34 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt, keeping Ramon at tropical storm status for now. The storm is drifting in weak steering currents at an estimated 015/2 kt. Ramon is between a mid-level ridge to the east and a mid-latitude trough to the north, which will cause a slow north-northeast to north motion through the remainder of today. By Sunday, a weaker, more shallow cyclone is forecast to turn west-northwestward and gradually accelerate along the southern edge of a building ridge to the north. The latest NHC track forecast is slightly east of the previous forecast for the first 12 h, and lies between the consensus aids to the south and the previous forecast to the north at 24 h and beyond. Strong vertical wind shear is expected to continue to affect Ramon for the remainder of the forecast period. While upper-level divergence may enhance convection for the remainder of the day, the environment is forecast to become more convergent aloft this evening. The hostile winds and surrounding dry airmass should cause Ramon to weaken and become a remnant low by 36 hours, if not sooner. The official forecast still shows the storm dissipating by early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 15.3N 122.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 15.4N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 15.6N 123.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 15.7N 123.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1800Z 15.9N 124.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:10:33 UTC