ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Ramon Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202023 100 AM PST Sat Nov 25 2023 Ramon's center popped out from under the earlier convective activity during the past few hours, although new convection is now forming near the center. An ASCAT-C pass from around 06 UTC verified that maximum winds are 35 kt and also showed that the storm has a tiny circulation, with tropical-storm-force winds only extending 20 n mi from the center in the eastern semicircle. The more visible center and scatterometer data aided in adjusting the best track a little farther north, and Ramon's motion is estimated to be just west of due north, or 350/4 kt. An even slower northward or north-northeastward motion is expected during the next 24 hours while Ramon is caught in weak steering between a mid-level ridge to the east and a broad mid-latitude trough to the north. After 24 hours, a weaker and shallower Ramon is forecast to turn west-northwestward and accelerate, steered by a lower-level ridge to its north. The updated NHC track forecast has been shifted a bit north and west of the previous track to account for the initial center repositioning and blends the latest TVCE and HCCA consensus guidance. SHIPS diagnostics indicate that although the westerly shear affecting Ramon will remain strong and gradually increase, upper-level divergence is likely to increase and could give the storm an opportunity to strengthen slightly in the very short term. The 12-hour NHC intensity forecast reflects this possibility and follows the HCCA corrected consensus aid. However, the upper-level environment becomes more convergent just after 24 hours, with westerly shear increasing to near 50 kt. Those conditions should lead to quick weakening, with Ramon expected to become a remnant low by 48 hours, if not sooner. Global models then show the remnant low dissipating by 72 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 14.6N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 15.0N 122.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 15.2N 122.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 15.3N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 15.5N 123.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/1800Z 16.1N 124.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:10:33 UTC