ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023 800 AM MST Sun Nov 05 2023 Pilar's cloud pattern has degraded a bit this morning, and a recent SSMIS microwave image shows that mid-level circulation and deep convection have decoupled to the northeast of the low-level center. Still, the initial intensity remains 45 kt, possibly generously, based on the latest Dvorak CI numbers and objective satellite estimates. Although deep-layer shear is diagnosed in the SHIPS model as being low, global model analyses suggest that stronger mid-level southwesterly shear is occurring beneath the outflow level. Therefore, some gradual weakening is likely over the next day or so. After 24 hours, deeper-layer shear begins to increase to the east of a trough, which should cause Pilar to weaken faster through midweek. The cyclone is forecast to lose organized convection and degenerate into a remnant low in about 2 days, and then dissipate into a trough by day 4. Pilar has slowed down and turned west-northwestward with an initial motion of 285/7 kt in response to a mid-level trough extending southwest of the Baja California peninsula. The storm is forecast to turn toward the northwest in about 24 hours as it approaches the trough, and continue on that heading until it dissipates in about 4 days. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous prediction and lies between the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 10.8N 112.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 11.3N 113.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 12.1N 114.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 13.1N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 14.6N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/0000Z 16.0N 118.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1200Z 17.3N 119.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN
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