ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023 400 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Convection over and near Pilar's low-level circulation continues to flare periodically. A recent burst of convection has obscured the center on visible satellite imagery. Satellite intensity estimates have trended downward this cycle, with 45 kt from TAFB and SAB and a range of 33-49 kt from various objective estimates. The initial intensity has been lowered to 45 kt based on these values. Pilar is accelerating westward with an estimated motion of 270/9 kt. This general motion with an increase in forward speed is forecast for the next few days as the storm is steered along the south side of a mid-level ridge. The model guidance has accelerated again from the previous advisory. The latest forecast track is a blend of the prior prediction and the latest simple and corrected consensus aids. Moderate deep-layer vertical wind shear is expected to persist for at least another 24 hours. While the shear decreases beyond a day, Pilar will likely encounter a drier, more stable airmass associated with a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. These environmental conditions, along with cooler, upwelled ocean waters should result in a gradual weaken trend as indicated by the majority of the dynamical intensity guidance. The official intensity forecast reflects this scenario and is closest to the simple model consensus. There remains the possibility that Pilar could weaken sooner and become a post-tropical cyclone or open into a trough. However, the official forecast conservatively maintains a 5-day forecast for now. Key Messages: 1. Additional heavy rainfall from Pilar will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain of the Pacific coast of Central America from southern El Salvador, across southern Honduras, western Nicaragua into northern Costa Rica through today. 2. Swells generated by Pilar will continue to affect the Pacific coast of Central America during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 12.4N 91.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 12.0N 93.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 11.1N 96.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 10.2N 99.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 9.5N 102.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 9.3N 105.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 9.4N 107.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 10.0N 111.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 10.9N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:10:30 UTC