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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192023
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023

Deep convection has been increasing near the center of the 
depression during the past several hours, mostly on the northwestern 
side of the circulation.  A scatterometer pass at 1600 UTC, however, 
showed only 25-30 kt winds a fair distance northeast of the center.  
With the subjective Dvorak estimates also 30 kt or less, the initial 
wind speed will stay 30 kt on this advisory.  

The scatterometer data suggested that the center was a bit southeast 
of previous estimates, with only a northeastward drift noted during 
the past 24 hours.  The depression should begin to move more 
steadily northeastward or east-northeastward by early Monday due to 
steering flow associated with a mid- to upper-level trough over the 
northwestern Caribbean.  This pattern will likely take the system 
near the coast of El Salvador late on Tuesday, close enough 
to warrant a Tropical Storm Watch, though most of the guidance 
keeps the system offshore. The NHC forecast is shifted southeast of 
the previous one, similar to the guidance trend. A strong cold front 
is expected to push the system west-southwestward away from Central 
America by late Wednesday. Confidence in the details of the track 
forecast remains low since the model guidance has been inconsistent 
with the track of the system, as well as the dependence on the 
incoming cold front.

Gradual intensification is forecast during the next couple of days 
with the system moving over warm waters in light or moderate shear. 
Increasingly southeasterly shear is noted in all of the global 
models on Tuesday, so the NHC forecast will level off then, but is 
still close to hurricane strength.  The latest guidance has come 
down a bit, though since the corrected-consensus guidance is 
unchanged, the NHC forecast is about the same as the previous one.   
At long range, strong vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry and 
stable air will likely cause a weakening trend. 

 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rains from the tropical depression will produce flash and
urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain
along the Pacific coast of Central America, including El Salvador,
through Wednesday.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are possible by early Tuesday into 
Wednesday along portions of the coast of El Salvador where a 
Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect. Interests elsewhere along 
the Pacific coast of Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua should 
monitor the progress of this system as additional watches or 
warnings could be needed tonight or tomorrow.

3. Swells generated by the depression will begin to affect portions 
of the Pacific coast of Central America, including El Salvador, 
beginning on Monday.  These swells are likely to cause 
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/2100Z 10.8N  92.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 10.9N  92.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 11.2N  91.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  31/0600Z 11.7N  90.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  31/1800Z 12.0N  89.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  01/0600Z 12.0N  89.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 11.4N  89.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z 10.0N  93.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  03/1800Z  9.0N  97.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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