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BULLETIN
Hurricane Otis Special Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182023
700 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023
 
...OTIS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY
4 HURRICANE...
...NOW EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY AT LANDFALL...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 99.6W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado westward to Zihuatanejo
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12-24 hours. 
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to 
completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12-24 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
Interests elsewhere in southern and southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of Otis.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Otis was located
near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 99.6 West. Otis is moving toward
the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a north-
northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next
couple of days.  On the forecast track, Otis is expected to reach
the coast of southern Mexico by early Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Otis is a category 4 hurricane on the 
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Additional strengthening is 
forecast, and Otis is forecast to be a potentially catastrophic 
category 5 hurricane when the center reaches the coast.  Rapid 
weakening will occur after landfall.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 941 mb (27.79 inches).

This special advisory takes the place of the regularly scheduled 
700 PM CDT intermediate advisory for Otis.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Otis can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the 
hurricane warning area by late tonight and Wednesday, with extremely 
destructive winds near the core.  Tropical storm conditions are 
expected to first reach the coast within the warning areas this 
evening, and then spread northwestward within the warning areas 
through Wednesday.
 
STORM SURGE:  A potentially catastrophic storm surge is expected to 
produce life-threatening coastal flooding near and to the east of
where the center makes landfall.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Otis is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches through Friday across
Guerrero and the western coastal sections of Oaxaca.  This rainfall
will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas
of higher terrain.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Otis will affect portions of the southern
coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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