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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Otis Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182023
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023
 
...OTIS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT
LANDFALL...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 97.9W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Tecpan de Galeana
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Tecpan de Galeana
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
Interests in elsewhere in southern and southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of Otis.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Otis was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 97.9 West. Otis is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected during the next few days.  On the
forecast track, Otis is expected to reach the coast of southern
Mexico on Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Otis is expected to
be near hurricane strength before it reaches southern Mexico.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Otis can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Otis is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches through Friday across
Guerrero and the western coastal sections of Oaxaca.  This rainfall
will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas
of higher terrain.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane
conditions are possible within the warning area beginning Tuesday
night.
 
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where
the center makes landfall.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Otis will begin to affect portions of the
southern coast of Mexico on Tuesday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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