ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Otis Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 Otis has been relatively steady in strength this morning. Satellite images indicate that deep convection has been pulsing during the past several hours. The low-level center remains on the east side of the thunderstorm activity due to easterly wind shear. The satellite intensity estimates have not changed much, therefore, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt. Otis is moving slowly north-northwestward at 5 kt in the flow between a mid- to upper-level trough to its northwest and a ridge to its east. There continues to be significant disagreement among the models with the ECMWF showing Otis moving inland in about 48 hours while the GFS, HWRF, and HAFS models keep the system offshore during the next several days. A closer inspection of the guidance suggests that the differences in these solutions are related to the vertical depth and convective organization of Otis in the short term, which affects its forward speed. Since it appears that the ECMWF model has the best handle on the short term convective trends, the NHC track forecast continues to favor that solution overall. This prediction is a little to the left of the previous one, mostly based on the initial position/motion. Although Otis is expected to remain in a moderate wind shear environment, abundant moisture and warm SSTs should support gradual strengthening as long as Otis remains offshore. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one, following the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids. Rapid weakening is expected after Otis moves inland due to the rugged terrain in southern and southwestern Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains from Otis will begin to impact areas of southwest Mexico early this week. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible by Tuesday night along portions of the southern coast of Mexico, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 12.0N 97.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 12.6N 97.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 13.6N 98.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 14.6N 98.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 15.4N 99.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 16.2N 99.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 17.5N 100.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Delgado NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:10:27 UTC