ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Max Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023 Max has continued to intensify this morning as it nears landfall in Mexico. The overnight convection appears to have wrapped around the center, with an earlier AMSR2 microwave pass showing a low-level cyan ring on the 37 GHz channel, suggesting formative inner-core features. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T3.5/55 kt from SAB. The initial intensity was raised to 50 kt at 12 UTC, and that will remain the intensity for this advisory. This value also is close to the latest UW CIMSS D-PRINT estimate. While not shown in the forecast below, Max could intensify a little more, and be near its max intensity at landfall, sometime in the next 3-6 hours. However, rapid weakening should begin by this evening as the surface circulation is quickly disrupted by the high rugged terrain of Mexico, with dissipation likely by tomorrow. Max appears to have started a north-northeastward motion this morning, estimated at 030/4 kt. This motion is expected to continue until the storm moves inland later this afternoon. As the storm moves inland, the surface circulation will quickly become difficult to track, though its mid-level remains and larger moisture plume should push further inland into Mexico, even after the storm dissipates by early on Tuesday. Key Messages: 1. Max is forecast to continue bringing tropical storm conditions today to portions of the southern coast of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect. 2. Heavy rains from this system will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain across the states of Guerrero and Michoacan. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 17.1N 101.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 17.7N 100.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:10:23 UTC