ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Max Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023 Satellite images indicate that Max has become better organized, with a large burst of convection near the center and a well-defined banding feature in the southern semicircle of the storm. Recent scatterometer data indicates maximum winds of 40-45 kt, so the initial wind speed is set to 45 kt on this advisory. Further strengthening is possible in a conducive environment before Max makes landfall later today. Rapid weakening is then anticipated this evening over the high terrain of Mexico. The new forecast is similar to the previous one, but a bit higher due to the initial intensity. Max has turned northward or 010/5 kt this morning, and this general motion is forecast until landfall later today. The biggest change on this advisory is that the landfall of Max is expected to be sooner and farther east than before, which is consistent with recent trends and the latest model solutions. Max should dissipate over southern Mexico early on Tuesday. Key Messages: 1. Max is forecast to continue bringing tropical storm conditions today to portions of the southern coast of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect. 2. Heavy rains from this system will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain across the states of Guerrero and Michoacan. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 16.8N 101.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 17.5N 101.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR COAST 24H 10/0600Z 18.7N 101.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:10:23 UTC