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TROPICAL STORM TAMMY SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202023
1200 UTC THU OCT 19 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N  55.1W AT 19/1200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......120NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE  90SE  30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N  55.1W AT 19/1200Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  54.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 13.9N  56.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...110NE  50SE   0SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.5N  58.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  20SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.5N  60.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  20SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.8N  61.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.4N  62.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.9N  63.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  40SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 23.3N  63.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 27.2N  59.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N  55.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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