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Tropical Depression Mindy Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132021
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021

The latest infrared satellite imagery indicates that Mindy has been 
devoid of convection near its center since about the time it emerged 
over the Atlantic this morning. Deep convection is present well to 
the northeast of Mindy along a surface trough that extends 
northeastward from the cyclone. A late morning ASCAT pass showed a 
large area of 25 to 30 kt winds southeast of the center. The initial 
intensity is set to 30 kt based on this data. The ASCAT data and 
surface observations indicate that the circulation has become less 
well-defined, with barely any east winds observed on the north 
side. 

Mindy is located in an environment of strong south to southwesterly 
vertical wind shear. Over the next 24 h, the shear is expected to 
become even stronger. The latest forecast calls for Mindy to become 
post-tropical on Friday and dissipate Friday night. However, based 
on the lack on convection and the deteriorating wind structure, it 
is quite possible that dissipation could occur much sooner than 
forecast.

Mindy continues moving quickly off to the east-northeast, with a 
motion of 075/20 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast 
philosophy. Mindy is forecast to continue moving east-northeastward 
at a similar speed for the next 24 h near the southern portion of a 
deep-layer trough moving across the eastern United States.  Once the 
trough begins to lift northeastward, Mindy should slow down a little 
on Friday. The NHC forecast is a little south of and slightly faster 
than the previous forecast, mainly due to the farther south initial 
position.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/2100Z 32.0N  78.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 32.9N  74.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 33.8N  71.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Hagen
 
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